The NCAA Transfer Portal has completely transformed the landscape of college basketball recruiting, and the shift is being felt most heavily at the high school level. While I have had to work hard annually to attempt to help under-recruited seniors over my many years of scouting basketball in the state of Arizona, the past (5) years have been very hard to help student-athletes - hard for me and my staff, and also many of Arizona's top student-athletes. It is becoming more and more difficult to help high school prospects land Division-I opportunities.
As of April 6, 2025, more than 1,700 Division-I men’s basketball players have entered the portal, and that number is expected to rise before the April 22nd deadline. With so many experienced college players available, college coaches are prioritizing transfers over high school seniors. It’s a new era where roster management has become a year-to-year puzzle, and coaches are increasingly choosing proven players from the portal rather than developing talent straight from high school. last year, more than 40% of the prospects that entered the portal, were unable to find a college home.
This trend has created a recruiting bottleneck, leaving many high school players scrambling for opportunities. While the goal for many is still to play at the Division-I level, the reality is that fewer high school players are receiving D-I offers. Instead, there’s a noticeable uptick in interest from Division-II, Division-III, and NAIA schools, which are now finding value in high school players who are being overlooked.
Despite these growing opportunities, many high school players remain locked in on the Division-I dream, often ignoring quality offers from smaller schools. This mindset, combined with the oversaturation of the transfer portal, is creating a challenging recruiting environment - one where high school players need to be more flexible and realistic than ever before.
Another major factor reshaping recruiting is the rise of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) money. The transfer portal, combined with NIL deals, has led to the creation of so-called “super teams” — programs stacked with top talent, drawn by lucrative opportunities. As a result, there are fewer Cinderella stories in the NCAA Tournament, as the power has consolidated at the top.
Even for players entering the portal, the journey isn’t always smooth. A significant percentage of portal entrants don’t find a new home, leaving them without a team or scholarship. That reality adds another layer of pressure for high school athletes trying to break into the college scene, as they now compete with both high school graduates and hundreds of experienced college players.
The bottom line is clear: high school recruits need to adapt. In today’s game, it’s more important than ever to go where you’re truly wanted. Being realistic, open-minded, and strategic can open doors to a successful college career, even if that path doesn’t start at the Division-I level.
The message to high school seniors is simple: Don’t wait around. Don’t overlook great opportunities. Go where you’re valued, and where you’ll have the best chance to grow - as a player, a student and a person.
Arizona Preps Senior Editor Anthony Ray has been covering Arizona basketball for (30) years.
